Determinantes de las importaciones de cereales en Colombia

Botero Gaviria, Juan Pablo

Determinantes de las importaciones de cereales en Colombia

dc.contributor.advisor	Nonato Acevedo, Euler Mendivelson
dc.contributor.author	Botero Gaviria, Juan Pablo
dc.date.accessioned	2024-12-09T18:48:00Z
dc.date.available	2024-12-09T18:48:00Z
dc.date.issued	2024-11
dc.description.abstract	El propósito de esta investigación fue analizar el impacto de variables macroeconómicas sobre las importaciones de cereales (arroz, maíz y trigo) en Colombia entre 2009 y 2023. Se utilizó un enfoque cuantitativo basado en series de datos mensuales y un modelo de Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO) para identificar las relaciones entre el volumen de importaciones y variables como el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), el Índice de Tasa de Cambio Real (ITCR), el valor FOB de las importaciones y los acuerdos comerciales. Los resultados mostraron que los acuerdos comerciales facilitan las importaciones de cereales, especialmente en el caso del maíz, donde el IPC y el ITCR influyen de manera significativa. Para el arroz, se identificaron problemas técnicos como la autocorrelación y heterocedasticidad en los residuos, que requirieron ajustes adicionales. En general, los modelos fueron adecuados, validando los factores analizados. Se concluye que es necesario realizar un análisis diferenciado para cada cereal, debido a las respuestas distintas de cada uno frente a las variables macroeconómicas, lo que permite una visión más precisa de los determinantes de las importaciones de cereales en Colombia.
dc.description.abstractenglish	The purpose of this research was to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on cereal imports (rice, corn and wheat) in Colombia between 2009 and 2023. A quantitative approach based on monthly data series and an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model was used to identify the relationships between the volume of imports and variables such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Real Exchange Rate Index (RERI), the FOB value of imports and trade agreements. The results showed that trade agreements facilitate cereal imports, especially in the case of corn, where the CPI and the RERI have a significant influence. For rice, technical problems such as autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in the residuals were identified, which required additional adjustments. In general, the models were adequate, validating the factors analyzed. It is concluded that it is necessary to perform a differentiated analysis for each cereal, due to the different responses of each one to macroeconomic variables, allowing a more accurate view of the determinants of cereal imports in Colombia.
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12495/13653
dc.language.iso	es
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dc.rights	Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International	en
dc.rights.accessrights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.accessrights	http:/purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2/
dc.rights.local	Acceso abierto
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject	Cereal
dc.subject	Comercio internacional
dc.subject	Exportación/importación
dc.subject	Política comercial
dc.subject.keywords	Cereal
dc.subject.keywords	International trade
dc.subject.keywords	Exports/imports
dc.subject.keywords	Trade policy
dc.title	Determinantes de las importaciones de cereales en Colombia
dc.title.translated	Determinants of cereal imports in Colombia